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Author : Huang Jin He ( Ng Gim How )
Dialect : Fujian ( Hokkien )
Age : 24
Date of Birth : 15 Jan 1978
Nationality : Singapore
Location : Singapore
Sex : Male
Race : Chinese
Blood group : O+
Faith : Christianity
Highest education achieved : Diploma in Marine Engineering
The following post is my own personal comments and opinions .
The below post is about what China may do to achieve reunification of China militarily .
If the peaceful reunification of China is achieved , the combined economic and military strength , asset and resources may accelerate China to achieve multi-polarity capabilities .
Without military solution , the cross straits trend may be inclined toward Taiwan independence or at least maintaining the cross straits status quo .
Perhaps the majority of Taiwanese want independence , but they may want to avoid military resolution with China .
The military solution of China may deter Taiwan to declare independence .
Without the military support of the US , Taiwan may not declare independence .
If Taiwan declares independence without the US military support , the US may not intervene militarily in favor of Taiwan.
Taiwan is a strategic island which cut into China sphere of control , and lies on the shipping passage between south China sea and Pacific ocean .
Taiwan island is between China mainland and Philippines island which is a potential US military base .
Surrounded by sea as natural barrier , Taiwan island may be easy to defend and difficult to attack .
Taiwan island may become a launch platform for operation on east China coastal region .
Taiwan may become a political , economic , military ally against China .
Thus if Taiwan inclines to the US , Taiwan may become a national security threat to China , and may become a tool to counter and check the China .
But if China and Taiwan is reunified , Taiwan island may become a launch platform for China military for power projection into Pacific Ocean and South China Sea , China may control and regulate the shipping traffic between south China sea and Pacific ocean which are economic and strategic lifeline .
If Taiwan succeeded in declaring independence , an independence precedent may be made , and the confidence of the Xinjiang and Tibet province separatist may be inflated .
China may not want to repeat dissolution misjudgment of Soviet Union and Yugoslavia to become weak and divided , and chaotic socially and economically .
If China disintegrates beginning with Taiwan , China may invite the military intervention of the US in the name of a moral justification to secure a weak and divided China to the advantage of the US .
Since Taiwan may be de facto independence , no matter what concession China may offer , the political , economic , social , military and strategic interest of Taiwan may be betrayed , unless Taiwan is allowed to compete for China national leadership which may mean political democracy and election .
Since Taiwan may be de facto independence , the US may not support Taiwan to declare independence .
The US strategy toward China may be indirect and soft weakening and exhaustion of China , instead of direct and hard confrontation and force with China .
If the US want to weaken and exhaust China , the US may create difficulties for China development such as strategic instability to divert China financial allocation for economic development , competitive currency devaluation to reduce China export competitiveness ; support subversion and separatism in China ; create political , economic , social , military instability in China such as crimes and corruption in China ; etc
Since Taiwan may be de facto independence and Taiwan may incline to the US , Taiwan may form part of the US island chain strategy and encirclement strategy .
In the US island chain strategy , the first chain of island defense may be made up of Japan island , Taiwan island and Philippines island , etc .
In the US encirclement strategy , the present encirclement ring may be comprised of Japan , South Korea , Taiwan and Philippines , Thailand , etc .
Thailand and Philippines may be potential US military base .
The US military official may have visited Mongolia .
The US may use the convenience of anti-terrorism justification to increase political , military and strategic co-operation with Russia ally , India and Pakistan ally .
Thus , if Russia ally , India , Mongolia and Pakistan ally inclines to the US , the encirclement ring may be further tightened .
The US may use the justification of anti-terrorism to extend his influence to Afghanistan .
The US may have secured the inclination of the Afghanistan by economic and financial reward .
Thus , the future encirclement ring may be comprised of Japan , South Korea , Taiwan and Philippines , Thailand , India , Pakistan ally , Afghanistan , Russia ally , etc .
In the US counterbalance strategy , the US may ally with Japan to counterbalance China in the Pacific and may ally with India to counterbalance China in South Asia .
The US may use India to divert China focus away from east coastal region such as Taiwan .
Japan may try to justify China threat to Japan , alliance with the US to counterbalance China , military expansion , international military operation , support for subversion and separatism in China , etc .
India may try to justify China threat to India , alliance with the US to counterbalance China , military expansion , support for subversion and separatism in China , etc .
If the US ally with Russia ally to counterbalance China , the strategic balance stability may collapse and China national survival may be threatened , the US may gain another land route into China and the balance of nuclear distribution may be in disfavor to China .
India and Russia ally may extract the maximum concession from both China and the US by inclining ‘ to and from ’ either China and the US .
Perhaps to the US , Japan , India and Russia ally , and may be even South East Asia and Europe , a weak and divided China may be to the advantage of them .
The US may not want China to reunify so as to prevent China from achieving multi-polarity capabilities ; divide and weaken China ; use Chinese to counter and check Chinese ; increase leverage on the security and freedom of shipping passage ; maintain influence and create opportunities in intervention in Chinese affairs ; China threat ; protection of Asian countries ; defense of Asian democracy , freedom and human rights ; defense of the US political , economic , military and strategic interest ; etc .
The US may use justification and objective such as the US alliance in Asia-pacific ; military deployment in Asia-pacific ; the US strategy , policy , planning and operation in Asia-pacific ; disintegration of China ; divide and weaken China ; leverage on freedom and security of shipping passage ; maintain influence and create opportunities in intervention in Chinese affairs ; China threat ; protection of Asian countries ; defense of Asian democracy , freedom and human rights ; defense of the US political , economic , military and strategic interest ; etc .
Whether the US may want a war between China and Taiwan , or how much help the US may render Taiwan is debatable .
A war between China and Taiwan may affect US political , economic , military and strategic interest in the vicinity .
But the US may not want a united and strong China which achieve multi-polarity capabilities to compete with US uni-polarity status .
A war between China and Taiwan may weaken China economically and militarily which is to the advantage of the US .
If cross straits war broke out , the US may render sufficient military help to Taiwan military to ensure that the China military may not win and may suffer heavy losses .
The US may make sure that he may shed the minimum blood in the cross straits war .
If the US want a war with China before China achieve multi-polarity capabilities , the US may create an incident or bait to frame China or lure China to reunify Taiwan militarily so as to gain the moral justification for the US to divide and weaken China , and build a international alliance against China to isolate China politically , economically , militarily and strategically .
If China lost the cross straits war , the US may accuse China political and military leadership of war crimes such as military aggression against Taiwan .
The US may apply political , economic and military pressure on China combined with propaganda and misinformation war on China people to erode the political support and foundation of China political and military leadership , ferment division within China political and military leadership , and force the extradition of China political and military leadership for trial in international war court .
Under political , economic and military pressure on China combined with propaganda and misinformation war in China , China political and military leadership may lose popular support and ruling power .
Then the US may support a political and military faction to achieve China leadership which in turn may be a puppet government controlled by the US .
China is dependent on Russia ally for advanced military import and Russia ally is dependent on the US economically , thus if Russia ally , under the US pressure , cut off military export to China military during the cross straits war , or when China military is losing the cross straits war , what may happen ?
If China reunify Taiwan militarily , the China may not win the heart of Taiwan people to rule Taiwan , in addition there may be economic capital flight and social elite exodus from Taiwan combined with the destruction of Taiwan economic and military asset and resources , the US military may analyze the military strength and capabilities of China military in modern warfare and operation ; etc .
If China decide to reunify Taiwan militarily , the China military may use his nuclear asset to deter any military escalation with the US and Japan and other major power such as India , Russia ally , EU , Australia , etc .
If the US and Japan do not intervene militarily in favor of Taiwan , then other major power may not intervene militarily in favor of Taiwan .
No matter whether the US will intervene militarily in favor of Taiwan , the US military may provide early warning of imminent cross straits war to Taiwan military .
If the US and Japan decide to intervene militarily in favor of Taiwan , the US military may first neutralize China military nuclear asset using his stealth strategic strike aircraft fleet and may neutralize the China military submarine asset using their silent attack submarine fleet , before the US declares war when the US intelligence sensed cross straits war is imminent .
After the US declared war , Japan and other major power may declare war .
If the US failed militarily , the US military may nuke China .
If cross straits war broke out and if the US intervene in favor of Taiwan , the US may create a justification to build international alliance against the China to isolate the China politically , economically , militarily and strategically .
The US may use justification such as defense of political , economic , military and strategic interest ; defense of Taiwan democracy , freedom and human rights ; defense of freedom and security of shipping passage in China sea ; etc .
If China is reunified successfully , the China may decide to control and regulate the shipping traffic between south China sea and Pacific ocean to pass through Taiwan straits which may boost China maritime industry and a chain of interrelated economic industries which in turn may lead to economic and industrial development , employment and wealth creation and poverty alleviation and national revenue increase .
If the US and Japan decide to intervene militarily in favor of Taiwan , the US and Japan military , at the minimum , may provide two aircraft carrier fleet combined with logistical and intelligence support for Taiwan military , and perhaps missile defense support such as the US Aegis destroyer , which is a naval version of missile defense platform , and integration of Taiwan military missile defense system into the US military theatre missile defense system .
The US and Japan military , at the maximum , may provide massive aerial , naval , missile and artillery reinforcement ; and massive intelligence and logistical support for Taiwan military .
The US and Japan military may destroy the China military aerial , naval , missile and artillery capabilities ; destroy China military command , communication , logistical , intelligence and operational capabilities ; and may bring the war to political , economic , military and strategic heart and arteries of the China .
If the US and Japan military mobilize and deploy amphibious and airborne army , then they may intend to guard against North Korea attack or may intend to invade China from the coastal region which may be in collaboration with Taiwan military .
If the US military invade China from the coastal region such as east China coastal region , the US and Japan military amphibious and airborne army may first capture airports and ports to secure military logistic and reinforcement such as armored , mechanized , air assault and air cavalry army , after the US and Japan military established a beachhead , they may quickly force into Chinese hinterland to prevent the China military from encircling the US beachhead , and capture the political , economic and strategic heart and arteries of the CPC .
The US may launch a propaganda and misinformation war in China combined with military , economic and political pressure on China to erode the political support and foundation of the China political and military leadership , and ferment division within the China political and military leadership so as to accelerate the collapse of the China government and military .
The China military may advance to the coastline to defeat the US military amphibious attempt , and encircle the US military airborne attempt .
If the US military successfully forced into Chinese hinterland , the China military may lure the US military deep into China for strategic ambush , outflanking , encirclement , counterattack , etc .
The China military may not defend urbanity and territory , may prefer strategic high terrain , may focus on defeating the US military and its lifeline .
The US military may have aerial , naval , missile , artillery , mechanized , armored superiority , and superior military intelligence , logistic , command , control , communication , operation , firepower , mobility , range , etc while the China military may be good at direct contact infantry battle .
The US military may have full control and view of the war situation using the US military intelligence network such as his space satellite network and electronic plane , thus China military may have difficulties in concealing his military motive and plan , and achieving surprise and secrecy in military operation .
China military may operate against normal military routine such as night activities to achieve speed , surprise and secrecy in military operation .
China military may engage in annihilation battle with the US military to destroy the US elite force , for propaganda to demoralized and undermined the military confidence of the US , effect a breakthrough in the US military line , to increase friendly strategic depth .
Thus , China military may fake losing battle to lure the US military into strategic pursuit of the China military so that China military may have opportunities for surprise direct contact infantry battle with the US military .
China military may use numerical superiority to sustain continuous and massive infantry charge at the US military position so as to prevent the US military formation from replacement and replenishment ; recovery and rest ; reorganizing defense ; etc .
China military may use heavy casualties to exchange for annihilation success of the US military formation .
China military may replenish and absorb the captured military asset and resources from the annihilated US military formation .
In the direct contact infantry battle , China and the US sold
How may China achieve reunification militarily New (56千字)(orion78 2-4 20:52 阅读 200)